Decision’s Event Horizon

Could you, given all the pertinent information, make anything but the best decision all the time? 

This isn’t a trick question - you do have all the pertinent information, and it’s all straightforward and objective. You know the immediate result and cost of all your possible actions and you know their outcomes - perfectly. Zero error. 

If you answer to the original question is “yes” then allow me to introduce you to something called a Dollar Auction - living proof that a serious of optimal decisions to local problems can fuck you up really bad. That’s where the Decision Event Horizon comes to play. 

The decision’s event horizon is how far into the future have you estimated your decision’s effect on the global outcome. When you’re making a move in Chess you don’t think about it’s immediate result, you also think about what it will allow you to do six or seven turns from now. A robust way of modeling this is using something called Game Trees.

Think ahead, don’t make stupid decisions - that, or stick your head in the microwave and do the gene pool a favor.

My blog post - it’s so good because it’s mine!!!!!111one

<Random shit that sounds important but really isn’t goes here>

Max Payne - Intro

Camera pans back to show a frozen New York Harbor looking at the Statue of Liberty.

Officer:“Stand by, 10-10 investigated reported disturbance at Aesir plaza.”

Officer:“10-4, Dispatcher, verify address.”

Officer:”It’s Aesir Plaza, repeat, Aesir Plaza.”

A helicopter flies past and the camera swings around to show Lower Manhattan.

Officer:“Shots fired on the rooftop. An assault in progress at Aesir Plaza. Repeat, an assault in progress!”

NYPD cars rush down the street towards Aesir Plaza. The helicopter contin’ues towards the plaza.

Officer“It’s a warzone down here! 10-85, Dispatcher, need additional units, additional units now! Officer in danger, officer in danger!”

Officer“10-5, please repeat, 10-5, all units, all units, emergency! Officer in danger: Aesir Plaza, repeat, Aesir Plaza, all units…”

Max Payne“They were all dead. The final gunshot was an exclamation mark to everything that had led to this point. I released my finger from the trigger…and then it was over.

I have no data yet. It is a capital mistake to theorise before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts.

The Adventures of Sherlock Holmes
منتفخات عقلية: عزيزي التحريرجي, المبادىء دي في تيزك.

montaf5:

على طريقة أنا مش قصير أوزعة, أنا طويل و أهبل, لقيت ناس كتير بتحاول تقنع نفسها إنها تقدر تحافظ على فقاعة مبادئها في المعركة اللي الجاية و ببساطة ما تختارش أياً من الفاشيتين, معظم الأشخاص دول بيتعاملوا بمعطيات يوم 28 يناير 2011, فاكرين أنهم جزء من اللعبة أو إن مبادئهم هتشكل ضغط فعلاً, و تخلق الفارس…

1 month ago 2 ♥
A Videogame Prophecy Fulfilled

In April 2010 Zack Hiwiller wrote that post: 

http://www.hiwiller.com/2010/04/29/if-mario-was-designed-in-2010/

In which he envisioned a 2010 Super Mario Brothers:

Social Fucktardness

The original version of Max Payne, released in 2001, had a title screen that looked like this: 

In April 2012, an iOS version was released with a title screen that looked like this: 

I rest my case.

therealmoki:

i rarely post nudity but lord. her waist is so small and her boobies so big. ets nice. also she has an attractive face.

therealmoki:

i rarely post nudity but lord. her waist is so small and her boobies so big. ets nice. also she has an attractive face.

(Source: unrivaledcollection)

1 month ago 1684 ♥

(Source: icanread, via therealmoki)

1 month ago 14071 ♥

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